HQ2: How the Experts Think Amazon’s Decision Will Shake OutClarice Bartlett
Since Amazon announced its search for a second headquarters site, experts have speculated on what city will become home to HQ2. In January, the company narrowed down its selections to 20. The area Amazon chooses can expect its economy to surge, and, in the housing market, an influx of new residents.
According to experts recently surveyed by Zillow, Atlanta and Northern Virginia are frontrunners. Twelve of the 85 experts who participated in Zillow’s 2018 Home Price Expectations Survey believe affordability, the availability of land and business-friendly incentives are what make Atlanta a prime spot.
Another 12 experts believe that, though costly, Northern Virginia is ideal for its proximity to Washington, D.C. Eleven others chose Austin, nine chose Raleigh and six chose Denver.
Los Angeles, Miami, Newark and New York are the least likely to be selected, according to the experts, chiefly due to congestion, high home prices and lack of incentives.
Whichever city wins, how Amazon has benefitted Seattle—where its current headquarters is located—could indicate how it will impact HQ2’s market.
“As the experience of Seattle suggests, Amazon will not only directly bring thousands of high-paying jobs to the chosen city, but also has the potential to transform the regional economy,” says Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. “The local jobs boom that Amazon’s HQ2 promises will spur demand for the full spectrum of housing types, ranging from urban apartments to suburban single-family homes.
“Atlanta has the benefit of being one of the most affordable markets in the country, and is undergoing an urban renaissance with new public infrastructure providing attractive opportunities for employers seeking to lure young urbanites,” Terrazas says. “Northern Virginia has its benefits, as well, as it’s close to a highly educated workforce and a well-developed public transit infrastructure in the D.C. area.”
Amazon’s benefits, however, could come with drawbacks. A boom in the housing market could pressure prices, and more commuters could impact infrastructure.
“The potential economic benefits of hosting Amazon HQ2 are tantalizing, and will tempt the 20 municipalities still in the hunt to dangle significant tax incentives to get a deal done,” says Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, which conducted the survey with Zillow. “These cities should be prepared not only to justify their financial inducements, but to carefully weigh the social risks and costs that could accompany their HQ2 commitment. The mix and degree of these potential risks, such as diminished affordable housing stock, more congested roadways, and greater income inequality, vary considerably across the 20 markets.”
Amazon announced it would build the headquarters in October. The contenders: Atlanta, Ga.; Austin, Texas; Boston, Mass.; Chicago, Ill.; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colo.; Indianapolis, Ind.; Los Angeles, Calif.; Miami, Fla.; Montgomery County, Md.; Nashville, Tenn.; Newark, N.J.; New York, N.Y.; Northern Virginia; Philadelphia, Pa.; Pittsburgh, Pa.; Raleigh, N.C.; Toronto, Canada; and Washington, D.C.
For more information, please visit www.zillow.com.
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